Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook has been revised from stable to positive by Moody’s Ratings, which also affirmed the country’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings at B3.
The Federal Ministry of Finance, in a statement explained that, the development reflected the impact of the Federal Government’s macroeconomic and fiscal reforms implemented over the past three years.
Moody’s attributed the improved outlook to Nigeria’s stronger external position, citing sizeable current account surpluses, rising foreign exchange reserves, improved functioning of the foreign exchange market and more effective transmission of monetary policy.
The rating agency projects Nigeria’s current account surplus to widen to about 6.1 per cent of Gross Domestic Product in 2026.
It also noted the substantial increase in the country’s foreign exchange reserves, with Central Bank of Nigeria data showing reserves rising to $53.30 billion as of August 26, 2026.
Moody’s further pointed to stronger-than-expected economic performance, noting that real GDP growth reached four per cent in 2025, compared with earlier projections of about three per cent.
The agency expects similar economic expansion through 2027, supported by increased activity in the non-oil sector and rising oil production.
Headline inflation has also continued to moderate, falling to 15.4 per cent in July 2026 from 25.3 per cent recorded a year earlier.
The latest assessment follows FTSE Russell’s confirmation on August 27, 2026, of Nigeria’s reclassification from “Unclassified” to “Frontier Market” status.
It also comes after S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign rating to B from B- in May 2026, while Fitch affirmed the country at B with a stable outlook.
The Ministry said the assessments by the major international rating agencies represented an increasingly favourable view of Nigeria’s economic reform trajectory.
Reacting to the development, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, described Moody’s positive outlook as an external validation of the government’s economic reform programme.
Oyedele said the reforms included the removal of the fuel subsidy, unification of the foreign exchange market and tax reforms aimed at strengthening the country’s economic fundamentals.
He said the measures were beginning to restore macroeconomic stability through stronger foreign reserves, a resilient external position, moderating inflation and improved monetary policy transmission.
The Minister said the Federal Government’s medium-term ambition was to place Nigeria on the path to achieving investment-grade status.
He, however, stressed that this would require sustained improvements in the country’s external position, domestic revenue mobilisation, spending efficiency and debt affordability.
According to him, the government’s objective is not simply to secure better international ratings but to implement reforms capable of lowering Nigeria’s cost of capital, attracting private investment and promoting shared prosperity.
The Federal Ministry of Finance reaffirmed its commitment to sustaining the reforms underpinning Nigeria’s improving credit profile.
The Ministry listed deepening domestic revenue mobilisation through tax reforms and improved administration among its priorities.
It also pledged to sustain a disciplined, market-reflective and transparent foreign exchange regime, while strengthening public debt management and improving debt affordability.
Other priorities include maintaining fiscal discipline in coordination with state and local governments and advancing structural reforms aimed at boosting non-oil economic growth and diversifying government revenue.
The Ministry said Moody’s had indicated that a further rating upgrade could follow if the recent improvement in Nigeria’s external position was sustained or if revenue reforms resulted in a durable increase in government receipts.
It said both areas remained central to the Federal Government’s economic strategy.