Ibrahim Ibrahim
An agricultural expert with the National Agricultural Extension and Research Liaison Services (NAERLS), Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Dr. Imam Isah Musa, has warned that the recent decline in the prices of staple food commodities, particularly rice and maize could precipitate a long-term food crisis in Nigeria if urgent corrective measures are not implemented.
Dr. Musa noted that Nigeria is richly endowed with vast fertile and cultivable land suitable for producing a wide range of food crops for human, livestock and industrial consumption.
He explained that rice and maize have become highly strategic crops over the years due to their critical role in household food security and their strong market value.
According to him, the two staples are cultivated in nearly all states of the federation, engaging over 12 million rice farmers and more than 50 million maize farmers nationwide.
He added that an estimated 90 million Nigerians depend directly on their processing and value-chain activities for their livelihoods.
While consumers have welcomed the recent drop in food prices across major markets, Dr. Musa cautioned that the development signals a dangerous economic imbalance.
He explained that, under normal circumstances, sharp price reductions in agricultural commodities typically occur during peak harvest periods, not during the off-season.
“The current price fall is unlikely to be driven by increased local production,” he said. “Rather, it appears to be linked to the easing of food import restrictions, which poses serious risks to local farmers.”
Although lower prices may offer temporary relief to households struggling with food inflation and nutrition challenges, the expert stressed that the long-term consequences could be devastating for local producers, especially smallholder farmers.
He warned that sustained low prices would discourage millions of farmers, leading to reduced production, widening output deficits, increased dependence on food imports and worsening food insecurity—particularly in vulnerable rural communities.
Dr. Musa further expressed concern that the situation could deteriorate as the harvest season approaches, potentially resulting in a market glut and even lower prices. He noted that many farmers may be unable to recover their production costs, let alone make profits.
He pointed out that the 2025/2026 farming season has been marked by unprecedented increases in the cost of inputs such as fertilizer, herbicides, labour, fuel and transportation, alongside prohibitive interest rates exceeding 30 per cent.
“Harvest season is usually a time of joy for farmers, but this year’s harvest may be one of the most challenging in recent history,” he said, warning that the situation could lead to income collapse, loan defaults, job losses, reduced agricultural GDP and social instability.
The NAERLS expert called for urgent government intervention to correct market distortions and avert what he described as an impending crisis.
He recommended short-term measures including the introduction of a Minimum Support Price (MSP) for key staples, activation of strategic grain reserves to absorb surplus produce, and debt relief for farmers affected by price crashes.
On the medium term, Dr. Musa urged the government to reduce production costs through subsidised inputs, affordable mechanisation and energy support for agriculture, including preferential electricity tariffs and investments in solar-powered irrigation systems and farm machinery.
“The same speed and strategy used to crash food prices must be applied to bring down production costs,” he said. “Only then can we protect farmers, ensure food security and achieve sustainable benefits for consumers and the nation.”
He concluded that the current situation exposes the fragile and often misunderstood nature of Nigeria’s agricultural sector, warning that without decisive action, farmers remain at risk and the country’s food supply faces growing uncertainty.